Rice is the most important food crop in the developing world, and it is the staple food for more than half the world's population. Rice cultivation has been described as the world's single largest economic activity. More than one billion people depend on rice cultivation for their livelihoods, and almost 160 million ha are harvested annually.
In many ways, rice cultivation is also among the smallest economic activities. In Asia, where 90 percent of the world's rice is grown, there are more than 200 million rice farms, most of which are smaller than one hectare. Over 550 million people live on less than $1.25 per day in rice-producing areas, so most of the rural poor in Asia depend on rice for a significant share of their earnings.
About 75 percent of the rice harvest is currently grown on flooded soils that are then "puddled" (that is, heavily tilled to convert the soil into mud that can hold water at the surface instead of allowing it to drain freely). Seedlings are transplanted into the mud, and across most of Asia, this transplanting is still done by hand. The standing water controls most weeds, but the crop still needs to be hand weeded. Transplanting and weeding are typically done by women and children, and up to 10,000 L of water may be used to produce one kilogram of rice.
The dramatic changes in Asian economies are rapidly driving major changes in rice farming. Rapid industrial and urban growth is creating competing demands for water and labor. Governments are increasingly diverting water away from agriculture, and young people are leaving the countryside for opportunities in urban areas. After all, it is not hard to imagine an attractive alternative to walking backward in calf-deep mud and bending over 10,000 times to transplant 250,000 seedlings per hectare.
In tropical Asia, a rapid shift from hand-transplanted rice to direct-seeded rice is taking place, especially where labor is scarce. Soils are still flooded where there is abundant water, but increasingly farmers rely on dry methods. This change will dramatically alter weed management. Direct seeding does not lend itself to hand weeding, and the forces driving it--that is, labor scarcity--also mitigate against hand weeding. Inevitably, Asian farmers will move to more mechanized methods.
Small land holdings will consolidate into larger management units. How fast this occurs will depend on several factors. In the former socialist countries, some sort of title to the land will have to be secured before farmers can invest and lenders can provide credit. In countries that have seen aggressive land reform, mechanisms must be in place to allow farmers to retain title while participating in larger management units.
As farm sizes increase, cash investment per hectare will also increase to replace the decreased investment in labor. Dramatic increases in herbicide use will be the most obvious change, and the rice will also change. Today, most rice grown outside of China is of a pure breeding type, and farmers save their seed from one season to the next. Hybrid rice, pioneered in China, has a higher yield potential, but farmers must purchase seed every season.
As rice farming becomes increasingly commercial, hybrid rice will increase to at least 25 percent of the production area in the coming decades. This will engage private seed companies, and there will be a major shift from informal and government-based seed systems to a system that involves the private sector, much like in European and North American farm communities.
Finally, almost all rice farmers in Asia will soon have access to the Internet and other information resources through cell phones and related technologies. The adoption rate of information technology in rural Asia is already astounding. The public and private sectors are building systems that will allow farmers to access real-time advice on crop management, and these systems will be geo-referenced to meet the specific requirements of a given field, season, or variety. Farmers will also be able to access credit using their cell phones.
Most importantly, farmers will have real-time access to market information for inputs and harvests. This will he the final step in the conversion of rice farming from a largely subsistence activity to a dynamic commercial enterprise. Thus, we will see an enormous transformation of rural Asian communities. The forces that are driving these changes are already in place. It is not possible to prevent them from transforming rural life, but it is possible for policy makers to ensure that the net social and environmental impacts are positive.
Robert S. Zeigler is director general of the International Rice Research Institute, Los Bancs, The Philippines.
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